Photo by Guido Coppa on unsplash
Baseball has always been a game about numbers: home runs, earned run average, on-base percentage, fielding percentage, and on and on.
Numbers, however, should only be a byproduct of the action on the field, not the controlling factor. Unfortunately, numbers, analytics, is ruining the game.
If you do not buy into that, take another look at Tuesday night’s final game of the 2020 World Series. Tampa Bay is holding a 1-0 lead, Matt Snell is pitching masterfully, giving up two harmless hits while striking out nine through 5 1/3 innings. But he gave up a one-out single and with the top of the Los Angeles Dodgers batting order coming up for a third time, manager Kevin Cash pulled Snell. The decision ended up costing the Rays a possible win and gave the Dodgers their first World Series title since 1988.
Why the decision? Because analytics say when a pitcher faces a batting order for a third time, his effectiveness wavers. And it is true. During the regular season opposing hitters had a .140 batting average the first time they faced Snell and that went to .307 the second time and .304 the third time through the lineup. So Cash yanked his best chance of winning, even though Snell was dominating the Dodgers with a performance reminiscent of his 2018 Cy Young Award-winning season.
But analytics said do not let a pitcher face a batter a third time.
Cash agreed it was a tough decision but said “I didn't want Mookie (Betts) or [Corey] Seager seeing Blake a third time through.”
Before analytics took the human element out of the decision-making in baseball, managers looked at how well their starter was pitching, what was his body language saying and how tough was he mentally in difficult situations before making a decision on whether or not to go to the bullpen. Today they strictly follow the script, the numbers. Granted the strategy Cash used Tuesday had worked for Tampa most of the season. But this was Game 6 of the World Series and his starter had total control of the game. It was, and should have been, Snell’s to win or lose.
Imagine the reaction manager Walter Alston would have gotten if he tried pulling Sandy Koufax or Don Drysdale in a similar situation back in the 1960s?
But times change, and not necessarily for the better. For that I blame Billy Beane, the man credited with bringing analytics into the game in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Ordered by Oakland Athletics ownership to field a competitive team on a limited budget, Beane focused on sabermetrics to find undervalued players. And yes, the A’s became a cost-effective team. And yes, they did make the playoffs four straight years, 2000-2003. But in the 24 years since Beane brought analytics to the game, Oakland has reached the playoffs only 11 times, have never reached the World Series and have made the American League championship series only once.
Yet analytics continue to dominate decisions being made on and off the field. Today every time a home run is hit the first words out the announcer’s mouth – as the runner in trotting around the bases – is how far the ball went, the exit velocity when it left the bat and the trajectory of the flight. Personally, I say who gives a damn! The guy hit the ball hard and it cleared the fences. Enough said. But those numbers are significant because trajectory is the reason batters have all changed their swings to an upward swing designed to get the ball into the air. Improves the chances of a home run.
It also leads to record numbers of strikeouts and boring baseball. Sure a home run can be exciting under the right circumstances – a grand slam or a walk-off – but for me, I prefer action on the basepaths. And I suspect a lot of baseball fans feel the same way. Look at the viewing numbers for this year’s World Series – some of the lowest on record, yet the two teams playing are the best in the respective leagues this year, with the most home runs and the most runs scored. The six-game series received average television rates 32 per cent below the previous World Series low. The 2020 series averaged a 5.2 rating, 12 share and 9,785,000 viewers, Nielsen Media Research said Wednesday. The previous low was a 7.6 rating, 12 share and 12,660,000 viewers for the San Francisco Giants – Detroit Tigers series in 2012.
Obviously fans are bored watching games that feature four, five, six pitching changes, a bunch of home runs and not much else. And even though it worked for the Dodgers in Game 6, I hate these bullpen games that see pitchers changed every inning. MLB should ban that practice immediately.
What are the most talked about moments from this year’s World Series, other than Justin Turner’s poor and selfish decision to go on the field and then take off his mask to join in the post-game celebrations after testing positive for Covid-19 that day?
It is not the record number of home runs. OK, I will concede Randy Arozarena’s rookie home run record will be talked about.
But it is about the outstanding defensive plays by both teams.
It’s about stolen bases – successful ones by Mookie Betts in particular (the first person since Babe Ruth in 1921 to steal two bases in a single inning of a World Series, in Game 3), and an ill-advised attempt to steal home by Tampa’s Manny Margot in Game 5.
It is about the RBI bunt by Dodger catcher Austin Barnes in their Game 3.
It is about that crazy ninth inning of Game 4 and the Dodger miscues that led to the Rays winning run.
It is about the exciting plays that baseball has forgotten about and moved away from in favour of the long ball.
And when games consistency see four, five or six home runs, it is just boring baseball. Give me action on the basepaths any day. And let’s get back to letting the performance of starting pitchers dictate when, or in some cases if, they should be replaced.
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